
GFR
Global
Flashpoints
Roundtable
13 October 2026
THE METROPOLITAN CLUB
NEW YORK CITY
Distinguished Leaders & Speakers
We have been fortunate to learn from some of the world’s greatest leaders in foreign affairs and business at the Global Flashpoints Roundtable over the past several years. The caliber and prominence of our chairs and featured speakers are one of the many ways the Roundtable stands apart from traditional conferences. We look forward to the unique insights and perspectives our distinguished guests will share this year.

LTG H.R. McMaster (Ret.)*
Former White House National Security Advisor

Hon. Kay Bailey Hutchison*
US Representative to NATO, 2017-21; US Senator from Texas, 1993-2013

Barry Sternlicht*
Founder of Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide and Starwood Capital Group

Alondra Nelson
Former Director, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy

Brad Raffensperger
Georgia Secretary of State

Sen. Joe Manchin
Senator from West Virginia

Dame Karen Pierce
UK Ambassador to the United States

Sen. George Mitchell
Former US Senate Majority Leader and Peace Negotiator

Sir Julian King
UK European Commissioner, 2016-19

Gunnar Wiegand
Managing Director for Asia-Pacific, European External Action Service, 2016-23

Hon. Yeo Han-Koo
South Korea Minister of Trade, 2021-22

Reince Priebus
Former White House Chief of Staff

Olexandr Dnylyuk
Former National Security Secretary and Minister of Finance, Ukraine

Sen. Saxby Chambliss
Former Ranking Member of Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

KT zu Guttenberg
Former German Minister of Defense and Minister of Economics and Technology

Rep. Austin Scott
US Representative from Georgia

Gen. Glen VanHerck
Commander, NORTHCOM and NORAD, 2020-24

James Baker
Director, Office of Net Assessment, US Department of Defense

Amb. Max Baucus
US Ambassador to China, 2014-17; Senator from Montana, 1978-2014

Kevin Rudd
Former Prime Minister of Australia
About
The world has changed dramatically in the last several years, and the challenges we face today are more numerous and complicated than they have been in generations. Shifting political, economic, social, and public health forces have created an international business environment that is unfamiliar and unpredictable.
Today, it is not only governments that must develop strategies to safeguard their global interests. Because their influence and control of resources is greater than in any other period in history, firms must have domestic and foreign policies as well.
In crafting their policies, CEOs and heads of state must make decisions that could have repercussions for years to come. They need counsel, based on accurate, actionable intelligence, from trusted senior advisors to understand dynamic geopolitical factors, many of which affect business and government equally.
Ergo, a leading global intelligence and advisory firm, has been providing bespoke access to critical information and this generation’s greatest strategic thinkers to the world’s leading companies and governments for nearly two decades. Once a year, we bring together these unique assets—our intelligence, our experts, and our clients—for a one-of-a-kind private working group on the issues and individuals who matter most.
Modeled on and leveraging the success of our previous events, Ergo’s 2025 Global Flashpoints Roundtable will be an exclusive, invitation-only session open only to the most influential leaders of the world’s most powerful companies and consequential government bodies. This intimate, off-the-record gathering will be limited to approximately 200 top executives of the largest corporations, banks, and investment firms, as well as to a handful of current and former officials from the highest ranks of the U.S. and other governments.
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2026 Agenda
7:15-8:00am
Breakfast and Registration
8:00-8:10am
Opening Remarks
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R.P. Eddy, CEO, Ergo
8:15-8:55am
Testing the Trifecta: 2026 Midterms Forecast
With the 2026 midterms just weeks away, control of Congress hangs in the balance. Which party will win control of the House and Senate, and what will it mean for the last two years of Trump’s second term—and the parties’ positioning heading into 2028?
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• Sam Cornale, CEO and Executive Director, Democratic National Committee, 2021-25
• Kristen Soltis Anderson, Leading GOP Pollster; Co-Founder, Echelon Insights
• Evan Pressman, Managing Partner, Ergo
9:00-9:20am
Keynote: Taiwan’s Potential Next President
With current president Lai Ching-te’s approval rating underwater, the opposition, traditionally more pro-China KMT party has a good chance of winning Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election. What would a KMT president mean for Taiwan’s relations with China, the US, and for Taiwan’s all-important semiconductor industry?
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• Lu Shiow-yen, Mayor of Taichung City, Taiwan and Likely 2028 KMT Presidential Nominee
• Jack Neubauer, China Forecasting Lead, Ergo
9:20-10:00am
China: How Long Will the Trade Truce Last?
After two Trump–Xi summits, the logic of mutually assured disruption (MAD) is all that holds together a trade truce that both sides appear ready to abandon as soon as they overcome the supply-chain vulnerabilities deterring escalation. Will the United States overcome its rare-earth chokepoint before China indigenizes its semiconductor supply chain? And could a flare-up in the AI race—or a crisis over Taiwan—push the two sides back toward confrontation before either is ready?
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• Jonathan Czin, China Director, US National Security Council, 2021-23
• Desmond Shum, Former leading China-based businessman and bestselling author
• Kelly Ann Shaw, Former Deputy Assistant to Pres. Trump for International Economic Affairs; U.S. Sherpa for the G7, G20 and APEC
• Mark Montgomery, Director of Operations, US Pacific Command, 2014-17; Policy Director, Senate Armed Services Committee, 2017-18
• Jack Neubauer, China Forecasting Lead, Ergo
10:00-10:25am
BREAK
10:25-11:10am
Defense: Building an AI-Native Army
With conflicts unfolding across Europe and the Indo-Pacific simultaneously, the US and its allies face unprecedented strain on military readiness and force posture. Will US procurement, capability, and posture keep pace with the challenges of a changing world?
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• Sir Nick Carter, Chief of the Defense Staff, UK, 2018-21
• Andy Yakulis, CEO, Vector
• Mike Gallagher, Head of Defense, Palantir; Chair, House Select Committee on the CCP, 23-24
• Alex Czarnecki, Director of Analysis, Ergo
11:15-12:00pm
Iran War: Endgame and Aftermath
When—and how—will the Iran War end? How will Gulf states adapt to an Iran they cannot ignore and a US whose ability to protect them has weakened? What changes to global energy markets and supply chains will prove lasting, and where will the antebellum status quo reassert itself?
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• Jason Greenblatt, White House Special Envoy to the Middle East, 2017-19
• Arash Azizi, Iranian political insider
• Yousef Al Otaiba, United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the US, 2008-
• Kyle Henderson, CEO, Vizion
• Jonathan Hausman, Chief Strategy Officer, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan
12:05-12:45pm
FIRESIDE CHAT: American Military Leadership
• Gen. C.Q. Brown, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2023-25
• H.R. McMaster, White House National Security Advisor to Pres. Trump, 2017-18; Chair, Ergo Flashpoints Forum
12:50-2:00pm
LUNCH
Strategic and Societal Implications of AI
As AI capabilities accelerate, frontier labs and governments alike face one question with civilizational implications: how can they stay ahead of the competition while ensuring that all of us are safe?
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• Jim Baker, Director, Office of Net Assessment (DOW), 2015-25; Strategist-In-Residence, Anthropic
• R.P. Eddy, CEO, Ergo
2:10-2:45pm
KEYNOTE: Forecasting the New Fed
• Adriana Kugler, Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 2023-26
2:50-3:40pm
AI In Action: Value Generation and Capture
As AI improves exponentially, what use cases will deliver the greatest additional value tomorrow? What will customers actually pay for, and which builders and users of AI stand to benefit most?
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• Ryan Daniels, CEO, Crosby AI
• Ara Kharazian, Economist, Ramp
• Jonathan Frankle, Chief AI Scientist, Databricks
• Connor Haseley, Associate Partner, Ergo
3:45-4:30pm
Europe’s Strategic Orphaning
NATO's role is more uncertain today than any point in the 76 year history of the alliance. With the war in Ukraine still ongoing and multiple threats looming from the east, how will the US and Europe's burden-sharing arrangement shift?
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• Andrzej Duda, President of Poland, 2015-25
• KT zu Guttenberg, Former German Minister of Defense and Economics
• Andrew Peek, Senior Director for European and Russian Affairs, NSC, 2025
• Amb. Paula Dobriansky, US Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs, 2001-09
4:30-4:55pm
BREAK
4:55-5:40pm
AI Infrastructure: The Bit About Atoms
The AI infrastructure buildout is the dominant force in the US economy, driving roughly half of GDP growth. Will supply chains constrained by physics, permitting, years-long construction timelines, and hardening public resistance slow AI’s growth? And across this stack, where will cokepoints and pricing power prove most persistent, and where will today’s shortages risk becoming tomorrow’s gluts?
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• Amir Yadzanbaksh, Google DeepMind Research Scientist
• Kaizad Mistry, Former Director of Logic, Intel
• Rob Powelson, Former Commissioner, United States Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
• Sameer Shaikh, Associate Director of AI Forecasting, Ergo
5:45-6:30pm
Controlling the Frontier
The White House is caught between two imperatives: winning the AI race and controlling it. As Washington weighs export controls, model licensing, and Chinese model restrictions, how will US policy shape ultimate adoption of frontier vs open-weights models? And as the data-center boom reshapes both the physical and political landscape, which party is better positioned to own the issue heading into 2028?
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• Martha Gimbel, Former Senior Advisor on Council of Economic Advisors
• Greg Allen, Former DOD Director of AI Strategy and Policy
• Reggie Babin, Fmr. Chief Counsel, Sen. Chuck Schumer
• Daniel Oestericher, Director of US Policy Forecasting, Ergo
Cocktail Reception
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H.R. McMaster, US National Security Advisor, 2017-18; Chair, Ergo Flashpoints Forum
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R.P. Eddy, CEO, Ergo
2026 Partners
Attendees
The Global Flashpoints Roundtable is an invitation-only event that is limited to senior executives from the world’s largest and most influential corporations, hedge funds, private equity firms, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds. Attendees of previous Roundtables represent over $10T in market cap and over $7.7T in AUM.






















