An intimate, confidential gathering of influencers in a private dialogue about risks and opportunities in a rapidly changing global landscape.
17 September 2024
THE METROPOLITAN CLUB
NEW YORK CITY
Distinguished Leaders & Speakers
We have been fortunate to learn from some of the world’s greatest leaders in foreign affairs and business at the Global Flashpoints Roundtable over the past several years. The caliber and prominence of our chairs and featured speakers are one of the many ways the Roundtable stands apart from traditional conferences. We look forward to the unique insights and perspectives our distinguished guests will share this year.
LTG H.R. McMaster (Ret.)*
Former White House National Security Advisor
Hon. Kay Bailey Hutchison*
US Representative to NATO, 2017-21; US Senator from Texas, 1993-2013
Gen. Michael Hayden (Ret.)*
Former Director of CIA and NSA
Barry Sternlicht*
Founder of Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide and Starwood Capital Group
Rep. Austin Scott
US Representative from Georgia
Brad Raffensperger
Georgia Secretary of State
Amb. Max Baucus
US Ambassador to China, 2014-17; Senator from Montana, 1978-2014
Alondra Nelson
Former Director, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
Sir Julian King
UK European Commissioner, 2016-19
Gunnar Wiegand
Managing Director for Asia-Pacific, European External Action Service, 2016-23
Rep. Liz Cheney
US Representative from Wyoming, 2017-23
Hon. Yeo Han-Koo
South Korea Minister of Trade, 2021-22
Olexandr Dnylyuk
Former National Security Secretary and Minister of Finance, Ukraine
Amb. Frank Wisner
Former Undersecretary of State and Defense
KT zu Guttenberg
Former German Minister of Defense and Minister of Economics and Technology
Sen. George Mitchell
Former US Senate Majority Leader and Peace Negotiator
Gen. Glen VanHerck
Commander, NORTHCOM and NORAD, 2020-24
Sen. Saxby Chambliss
Former Ranking Member of Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Karen Pierce
UK Ambassador to the United States
Reince Priebus
Former White House Chief of Staff
Kevin Rudd
Former Prime Minister of Austra
James Baker
Director, Office of Net Assessment, US Department of Defense
Sen. Joe Manchin
Senator from West Virginia
About
The world has changed dramatically in the last several years, and the challenges we face today are more numerous and complicated than they have been in generations. Shifting political, economic, social, and public health forces have created an international business environment that is unfamiliar and unpredictable.
Today, it is not only governments that must develop strategies to safeguard their global interests. Because their influence and control of resources is greater than in any other period in history, firms must have domestic and foreign policies as well.
In crafting their policies, CEOs and heads of state must make decisions that could have repercussions for years to come. They need counsel, based on accurate, actionable intelligence, from trusted senior advisors to understand dynamic geopolitical factors, many of which affect business and government equally.
Ergo, a leading global intelligence and advisory firm, has been providing bespoke access to critical information and this generation’s greatest strategic thinkers to the world’s leading companies and governments for nearly two decades. Once a year, we bring together these unique assets—our intelligence, our experts, and our clients—for a one-of-a-kind private working group on the issues and individuals who matter most.
Modeled on and leveraging the success of our previous events, Ergo’s 2024 Global Flashpoints Roundtable will be an exclusive, invitation-only session open only to the most influential leaders of the world’s most powerful companies and consequential government bodies. This intimate, off-the-record gathering will be limited to approximately 200 top executives of the largest corporations, banks, and investment firms, as well as to a handful of current and former officials from the highest ranks of the U.S. and other governments.
The theme of the 2024 Roundtable is “The Fastest Year In History”—evidenced by the seismic shifts set in motion by unprecedented economic and military conflicts underway among and within the world’s great powers and their impact on business operations and markets.
Agenda
Note: This is a draft agenda and is subject to change. Some speakers listed have not yet confirmed attendance. This draft agenda should not be distributed; it is intended only to provide a sense of our current planning as of August 2024.
The general structure of the 2024 Roundtable will be updated to offer a variety of panel discussions, keynote speeches, and interactive sessions. While maintaining elements of our traditional “Oval Office briefing” model, where experts brief and engage with a “principal” on critical global issues, we will introduce several new formats, each tailored to leverage the unique insights of the speakers and encourage interaction to provide the greatest possible value to our attendees. Throughout the day, Ergo experts will share their current intelligence, perspectives, predictions, and recommendations on the world’s most pressing issues.
7:15-7:50am
Breakfast and Registration
7:50-8:00am
Ground Rules and Goals + Opening Remarks
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R.P. Eddy, CEO, Ergo
8:05-8:50am
The Most Important Election in History: Who Will Win?
The 2024 US election is as close as it is consequential. Who will win the presidency and Congress, and what could change between now and Election Day?
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Lakshya Jain, Leading Election Modeler, Co-Founder, Split Ticket
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Greg Schultz, Campaign Manager, Biden ‘20
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Kristen Soltis Anderson, Leading GOP Pollster, Co-Founder of Echelon Insights
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Evan Pressman, Managing Partner, Ergo
8:55-9:45am
Trade Winds of Change: Navigating the New Economic Cold War
Geopolitical competition is triggering a once-in-a-generation rewriting of global trade patterns and paradigms, with no country exempt. How will the US, Europe, and other key manufacturers adapt to this new playing field?
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Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-MA), Member, House Select Committee on the CCP; US Representative from Massachusetts
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Amb. Gerónimo Gutiérrez Fernández, Mexican Ambassador to the United States, 2017-18; Managing Director, North American Development Bank, 2010-16
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Amb. Jovita Neliupšienė, Ambassador of the European Union to the United States
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Amb. Ted Osius, United States Ambassador to Vietnam, 2014-17; President and CEO, US-ASEAN Business Council
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Principal: Clete Willems, Deputy Assistant to the President for International Economics, 2017-18; Partner, Akin
9:50-10:20am
Deficit Hawk Down: Tax and Spend in the Next Congress
Two critical negotiations in 2025—on the debt ceiling, and on extending President Trump’s 2017 tax cuts—will determine the course of US fiscal policy for the rest of the decade. What can we expect from Congress?
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Rep. Kevin Brady (R-TX), Chair, House Ways and Means Committee, 2019-23; US Representative from Texas, 1997-2023; Senior Consultant, Akin
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Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT), US Representative from Connecticut
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Principal: Brendan Dunn, Tax, Financial Services, and Trade Counsel to Leader McConnell, 2012-18
10:20-10:40am
BREAK
10:40-11:20am
Subcontinental Shift: India’s Transformation from Incredible to Inevitable
The center of the world’s economic gravity is moving toward India, and no other geography presents India’s combination of vast opportunity and mind-bending complexity. What do smart business leaders investors need to know to win?
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Amb. Kenneth Juster, US Ambassador to India, 2017-21
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Dr. Urjit Patel, Governor, Reserve Bank of India, 2016-18
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Dr. Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian, Executive Director, International Monetary Fund; Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India, 2018-21
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Principal: Udi Chattopadhyay, Partner, Head of India Practice, Ergo
11:25-11:50am
Full Count: The Global Economy’s Payoff Pitch
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Steven A. Cohen, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Point72; Owner, New York Mets
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In conversation with R.P. Eddy, CEO, Ergo
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11:55-12:40pm
Putin Together The Pieces: The Future and Aftershocks of the War in Ukraine
Putin did not stop with Crimea, did not stop with the Donbas, and may not stop with Ukraine. How will the conflict evolve, will it resolve, and what comes next?
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Adm. Mark Montgomery, Deputy Director, Plans, Policy and Strategy (J5) at European Command, 2010-12; Policy Director, Senate Armed Services Committee, 2017-18
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Amb. Kristjan Prikk, Estonian Ambassador to the United States
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Mark Pascale, Former CIA Station Chief in Eurasian Countries
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Principal: Amb. Paula Dobriansky, Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs, 2001-09
12:45-1:50pm
LUNCH
Recognition of Service
Amb. Frank Wisner, Former Ambassador to India, Egypt, Philippines, and Zambia; Former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy; Former Under Secretary of State for International Security Affairs
“I’m More and Less Worried Than You Are”0
Jim Baker, Director, Office of Net Assessment, Department of Defense
1:55-2:45pm
The President, Season 2: What Would Trump Do?
The first Trump administration changed the course of the United States on trade, China, and much else. What are President Trump’s second-term goals, and how would his administration attempt to realize them in today’s macroeconomic and geopolitical environment?
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Scott Bessent, Founder, Key Square Capital
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Jay Clayton, Chair, Securities and Exchange Commission, 2017-20
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Mick Mulvaney, White House Chief of Staff, 2019-20; Director of the Office of Management and Budget, 2017-20; US Representative from South Carolina, 2011-17
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Marc Short, Chief of Staff to Vice President Mike Pence, 2019-21; White House Director of Legislative Affairs, 2017-18
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Clete Willems, Deputy Assistant to the President for International Economics, 2017-18; Partner, Akin
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Principal: Julie Chon, Former Senior Advisor, Senate Banking Committee Chair Sen. Chris Dodd; Managing Director, Policy and Geopolitical Strategist, Moore Capital
2:50-3:25pm
Charting Her Own Path: What Would Harris Do?
Vice President Harris is looking to put her stamp on the presidency. What would drive and constrain her administration’s agenda, what areas will she prioritize, and how will she diverge from her predecessor?
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Peter Harrell, White House Senior Director for International Economics, 2021-22
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Virgil Miller, Chief of Staff to Rep. Cedric Richmond, 2011-19; Senior Policy Advisor, Akin
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Deanne Millison, Chief Economic Advisor to Vice President Kamala Harris, 2022-23
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Principal: Anne Perron, Former Chief of Staff to Rep. Mark Schauer; Director, Temasek
3:30-4:15pm
Battlefield 2050: The New Frontiers of Conflict
As the potential for conflict between great powers rises, technology is revolutionizing warfare across all domains and altering the nature of security and kinetic advantage. How will the next wars be fought, and won?
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Frank Finelli, Senior Advisor, The Carlyle Group
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Bernard Hudson, CEO, Advanced Archer Technologies
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Dan Jablonsky, CEO, Ursa Major
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Gen. John Nicholson (Ret.), Commander of US and Coalition Forces in Afghanistan, 2016-18
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Principal: Nadia Schadlow, Deputy White House National Security Advisor for Strategy, 2017-18
4:15-4:35pm
BREAK
4:35-5:05pm
Sand Trap: US Dilemmas in the Middle East
After four successive US presidents tried and largely failed to pivot away, raging conflict, energy and capital flows, and great power competition have only emphasized the Middle East’s importance. What will the next administration’s regional strategy look like, how will that map onto the most critical problem sets, and can the US learn the right lessons from the past?
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Amb. Jonathan Cohen, US Ambassador to Egypt, 2019-22; US Deputy Ambassador to the UN, 2018-19
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H.R. McMaster, US National Security Advisor, 2017-18; Chair, Ergo Flashpoints Forum
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Principal: Jonathan Hausman, Chief Strategy Officer, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan
5:10-5:55pm
Ballot Boxing: Contestation and Violence in the 2024 US Election
As the US’ epidemic of polarization and mistrust intensifies, election contestation has become endemic. What are both parties’ pre-election, Election Day, and post-election contestation and defense strategies, are local election officials prepared, and what pathways could put the US on course for social unrest or constitutional uncertainty?
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Sec. Francisco Aguilar, Secretary of State, Nevada
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Benjamin Ginsberg, National Counsel, Bush ‘00, Bush ‘04, Romney ‘08, Romney ‘12 Campaigns; Member, Presidential Commission on Election Administration
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Mounir Ibrahim, Chief Communications Officer, Head of Public Affairs and Impact, Truepic; US Foreign Service Officer, 2009-17
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Mary McCord, Assistant Attorney General for National Security, 2016-17
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Principal: Mo Elleithee, Communications Director, Democratic National Committee, 2013-15; Founding Director, Georgetown University Institute of Politics and Public Service
6:00-6:35pm
Crossing the Rubicon: Pushing the Limits of Executive Authority
Executive power has been on the rise for decades, and many believe that the next president will enlarge it even further. How well-founded are these concerns, what strategies and policy changes are key actors proposing, which are likely to come, and what practical and constitutional impacts will result?
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Bob Bauer, Longtime Advisor to President Joe Biden; Co-Chair, Presidential Commission on the Supreme Court of the United States, 2021; Co-Chair, Presidential Commission on Election Administration, 2013-4; White House Counsel, 2009-11; Professor of Practice and Distinguished Scholar in Residence, New York University School of Law
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Steven Engel, Assistant Attorney General for the Office of Legal Counsel, 2017-21
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Machalagh Carr, Chief of Staff, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, 2019-23
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Principal: Mo Elleithee, Communications Director, Democratic National Committee, 2013-15; Founding Director, Georgetown University Institute of Politics and Public Service
6:35-7:30pm
Reception and Closing Remarks
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H.R. McMaster, US National Security Advisor, 2017-18; Chair, Ergo Flashpoints Forum
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R.P. Eddy, CEO, Ergo
2024 Partners
Attendees
The Global Flashpoints Roundtable is an invitation-only event that is limited to senior executives from the world’s largest and most influential corporations, hedge funds, private equity firms, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds. Attendees of previous Roundtables represent over $10T in market cap and over $7.7T in AUM.
Highlights of Previous Roundtables
Opening remarks by Gen. Michael Hayden, former Director of CIA and NSA
